Market analysis · Flagship
Why the $9 billion Thailand cannabis forecast is wrong
The most-cited forecasts extrapolate pre-crash growth straight past the 36.5% drawdown that already happened. The single error behind every oversized number.
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Market analysis
Thailand's cannabis market did not collapse, it consolidated
The shop count fell hard, but the revenue did not disappear. It concentrated into fewer, larger, better operators.
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Supply
Why most flower in Thai dispensaries never touched the legal channel
Three routes carry flower to a licensed counter, and most of what sells arrives grey and is sold as legal retail.
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Data
The three numbers no Thai authority publishes
Cultivation area, production tonnage, lab throughput. The three figures the market most needs, and none of them exist in the public record.
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Exports
Thailand cannabis exports and the EU-GMP wall
The export leg of the bull case rests on a certification that, as of a live register query, no Thai producer holds.
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Ownership
Why the 49 percent cap is not the real ceiling
How foreign capital participates past the ownership cap, legally, and the shortcut that is now a prosecuted crime.
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Regulation
Is Thailand about to re-ban cannabis?
Recriminalization is not the risk investors think it is. The live downside is a loosening and oversupply, not a ban.
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Consumer
What actually sells inside a Thai dispensary now
A flower-led market with a broad international buyer base. The shape of demand, from the counter.
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Operations
What it actually takes to license a dispensary in Thailand
The licensing and setup reality, from having taken a dispensary from application to open doors first-hand.
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Regulation
What Thai cannabis law actually allows in 2026
Controlled herb, prescription retail, recreational still off the table. What the rules mean for a business, not a tourist.
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