Why Did We Count Thailand's Cannabis Market Instead of Modelling It?
There is a single decision underneath everything that makes this report different. We counted the market instead of modelling it.
Why Is a Market Model Just a Dressed-Up Guess?
A market model can be elegant, well-referenced, and completely detached from the street. It is a structured argument about what a number should be, given a set of assumptions. That is useful in the absence of anything better. It is not the same as knowing.
What Does Counting a Market Instead of Modelling It Actually Involve?
Counting means more than 850 dispensaries visited, 30 farms and 100 operators interviewed across more than ten nationalities, and 400 customers across forty. It means three years, and it means completing the licensing process ourselves. None of that scales, and all of it is real.
What you get at the end is not a prettier guess. It is a floor of observed fact that the guesses never stood on. The estimates that remain are built up from that floor, not projected down from a curve.
A market model is a structured argument about what a number should be, given assumptions. Counting produces a floor of observed fact the guesses never stood on.
More than 850 dispensaries visited, 30 farms and 100 operators interviewed across more than ten nationalities, 400 customers across forty, three years, and the licensing process completed directly.
No. A model can be elegant and well-referenced while remaining completely detached from the street. That is useful in the absence of anything better, but it is not the same as knowing.
A floor of observed fact, built up from the ground rather than projected down from a curve.
This post gives you the argument. The full method, the figures, and the confidence ratings behind them are in the report. Read a free sample chapter, then decide.
Read the free sample →