Why Does a Range Beat a Point Forecast?
Ask most reports where this market will be by 2030 and you will get a single confident line. Reality does not offer single lines. It offers ranges, and the width of the range is where the real information is.
Why Is a Single Point Forecast Both Comforting and Dangerous?
A point forecast is comforting because it is simple. It is dangerous for the same reason. It hides the spread of plausible outcomes, and it is precisely that spread, the distance between the good case and the poor one, where fortunes are made or lost.
What Does a Scenario Range With Visible Assumptions Look Like?
The honest approach is to lay out a range of outcomes, conservative through aggressive, and to make the assumptions behind each one visible so a reader can judge which future they are actually betting on. A number without its assumptions is a guess wearing a suit.
The report gives the scenarios and the reasoning behind each, rather than a single figure asking to be trusted.
A point forecast hides the spread of plausible outcomes, and that spread, the distance between the good case and the poor one, is where fortunes are made or lost.
It is comforting because it is simple, and dangerous for the same reason, because it hides the range of outcomes that actually matters.
Conservative through aggressive outcomes with the assumptions behind each one made visible, so a reader can judge which future they are actually betting on.
Scenarios and the reasoning behind each, rather than a single figure asking to be trusted.
This post gives you the argument. The full method, the figures, and the confidence ratings behind them are in the report. Read a free sample chapter, then decide.
Read the free sample →