Where Will the Thai Cannabis Market Go From Here (2026 to 2030)?

The realistic path for the Thai cannabis market from 2026 to 2030 is a gradual recovery as the industry formalizes under the medical framework, not the steep climb the pre-contraction forecasts projected. After the drawdown from the 2024 peak, a measured recovery over the rest of the decade is the credible base case. The specific trajectory and figures are in our report; the shape is a slow rebuild, not a hockey stick.

Why not the incumbent forecasts

The multi-billion-dollar 2030 forecasts assumed uninterrupted growth from the boom. That path is gone. A credible forecast starts from the post-contraction reality and models a recovery constrained by regulation, oversupply, and the pace of formalization. It is smaller and slower than the incumbent numbers, and far more likely to be right.

What drives the recovery

The recovery is likely driven by formalization: codified legislation bringing certainty, the medical market maturing, consolidation strengthening survivors, and gradual demand normalization. Each is a real but measured force. None of them supports a sudden return to boom-era growth, but together they support a genuine, if slower, rebuild.

The risks to the path

The downside risks are continued tightening, the tail possibility of narcotic reclassification, and persistent oversupply pressuring prices. The upside is faster-than-expected formalization and export progress if the certification gap closes. A responsible forecast presents a range across these, rather than a single confident number, which is how our report frames it.