Why Do Licence Counts and Real Cannabis Sales Tell Different Stories?

Most public numbers about Thai cannabis describe what is registered: how many licences are in force, how many shops appear on a map, how many cultivation sites are certified. Those numbers are real and useful. They are not the same thing as what is actually sold, and treating one as the other is the most common mistake in reading this market.

Two lines that can move apart

Picture two lines on a chart. One is what the official record shows: licences, registrations and reported activity. The other is what changes hands in practice. In a stable, well-measured market the two lines move together. In a market that has changed its rules as often as Thailand has since 2022, they can open up like the blades of a pair of scissors. Estimated

When the gap opens, a report built only on the official line can tell a confident story that is simply wrong. A rising licence count can coexist with falling sales per shop. A falling count can coexist with trade that has moved rather than stopped. Neither line, on its own, tells you which.

Why the official record and real trade can differ

• Timing. Licences are counted when they are issued and when they expire. A shop that has stopped trading can still hold a valid licence until its expiry date, and a shop that has just opened may not yet appear in any published list.
• Coverage. Registers describe the businesses that registered. Any trade that never enters a record is, by definition, absent from the count.
• Rule changes. Each change of rules, from open retail in June 2022 to the prescription regime from 26 June 2025, changed what had to be recorded and by whom. Verified Figures from either side of a change are not always comparable.
• Reporting quality. Filed records are only as good as the people filing them. Gaps and errors in the underlying filings carry straight into any total built on them.

What this means for a reader

None of this makes official figures worthless. It means each one answers a narrower question than the headline suggests. A licence count answers "how many businesses are allowed to sell". It does not answer "how much is sold", "who is making money" or "which businesses will survive renewal". Those need different evidence.

The useful habit is to ask, of every figure, which line it sits on. If a report does not say, assume it sits on the official line and read its conclusions about the real market with caution.

Five questions to ask of any market figure

1. Is this a count of registrations, or a measure of actual sales?
2. Which period does it cover, and did the rules change during that period?
3. What would a business have to do to appear in this figure, and what would make it disappear?
4. Does the source say how confident it is, and why?
5. Is the figure being used to answer the question it actually measures?

Why both lines matter for decisions

An investor pricing a dispensary, a lender assessing a loan or an operator choosing a location needs both lines. The official line tells you about legal standing and the renewal test. The trade line tells you about revenue and competition. A decision made on one line alone is a decision made on half the evidence. See who is making money in Thai cannabis and whether the market will collapse or consolidate.

How the report handles it

The 2026 report sizes the registered market and the traded market separately and labels every figure by confidence: Verified, Estimated or Indicative. Where the two lines differ, it says so and explains what the difference means for each type of business. Those figures are in the paid report. The rules that shape the official record, Section 3, are free to read.

Sources

• Section 3 of the 2026 report, The rules in force (free to read)
• Thairath, DTAM guideline on administrative orders for cannabis shops, 22 June 2026

This article is market intelligence, not legal, tax or immigration advice. Rules change by notification; check the current text with the relevant authority or Thai counsel before you act.