Forecast or Fact? How Do You Tell the Difference When Reading Market Numbers?
A fact is something you can stand on today. A forecast is a claim about a future nobody has seen, and the two are often sold as the same thing.
A great deal of what circulates about Thai cannabis is forecast presented as fact. Learning to tell the two apart is one of the most useful habits an entrant can build before deploying capital.
What Is the Difference Between a Forecast and a Fact?
A fact is something you can stand on today. A forecast is a claim about a future nobody has seen. Both have their place. The failure mode, and it is the failure mode that has cost people here, is selling the second as the first and hoping the reader does not notice the difference.
How Does This Report Tag What It Actually Knows?
The discipline we hold is simple. Every figure carries a rating of how much we actually know behind it. Hard evidence, strong inference, or honest estimate of a genuine unknown. You are never left guessing which kind of number you are leaning on, which means you can weight your decision accordingly.
That rating sits next to every figure in the report, by design.
A fact is something you can stand on today. A forecast is a claim about a future nobody has seen. Selling the second as the first is the failure mode that has cost people money here.
Every figure carries a rating of how much is actually known behind it: hard evidence, strong inference, or an honest estimate of a genuine unknown.
It means you are never left guessing which kind of number you are leaning on, so you can weight your decision accordingly.
Much of it is forecast presented as fact, which is why learning to tell the two apart is a useful habit before deploying capital.
This post gives you the argument. The full method, the figures, and the confidence ratings behind them are in the report. Read a free sample chapter, then decide.
Read the free sample →